If a player is at his maximum then he has 1 in 3 chance to gain a point/level.
If a player is at his maximum + 1 then he has 1 in 5 chance to gain a point/level.
If a player is at his maximum + 2 then he has 1 in 10 chance to gain a point/level.
If a player is at his maximum + 3 then he has 1 in 20 chance to gain a point/level.